Bangkok, October 29th, 2025– Thailand’s recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the United States on critical minerals cooperation has ignited a firestorm of debate, thrusting the kingdom into the crosshairs of the escalating global “rare earth war” between Washington and Beijing.
Signed on the sidelines of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur on October 26th, the non-binding agreement aims to diversify supply chains for rare earth elements—vital for everything from electric vehicles and smartphones to defense technologies. But critics warn it could ensnare Thailand in superpower rivalries, jeopardize ties with its largest trading partner China, and unleash environmental havoc in resource-rich southern regions.
The MOU, formally titled “Cooperation to Diversify Global Critical Minerals Supply Chains and Promote Investments,” was inked by Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside similar pacts with Malaysia, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It comes amid heightened U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on China, which controls about 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing. Beijing’s recent export curbs—retaliation for U.S. tariffs—have disrupted supplies, prompting Trump to boast of flooding the market with alternatives “in about a year,” potentially crashing prices.
Under the deal, the two nations pledge to share expertise on exploration, extraction, processing, and recycling, while prioritizing investments in value-added industries over raw exports. A key clause grants the U.S. “first opportunity” to invest in Thai critical mineral assets, subject to domestic laws. Thailand, ranked sixth globally in rare earth production with 13,000 metric tons annually—a 261% surge in 2024—sees potential in untapped deposits in its southern seas, mountains, and northeastern provinces like Nakhon Ratchasima. Facilities like the Neo Magnequench plant already process imported rare earths for EV magnets, positioning the country as a regional hub.
Government Defends Deal as ‘Non-Binding Opportunity’
Thai officials have moved quickly to quell alarms while stressing the MOU’s flexibility and strategic upside. Prime Minister Anutin, speaking to reporters post-signing, described it as a “non-binding pledge” focused on technology transfer and value-added production, without legal obligations. “Thailand lacks advanced extraction know-how, so this cooperation brings expertise,” he said, adding that either side could terminate it anytime.
Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun echoed this, noting the agreement was vetted by the Cabinet and Council of State. “It’s not a trade deal like an FTA—it’s cooperative, and we can work with both the U.S. and China,” she told reporters on October 27th. She dismissed geopolitical fallout, citing reassurances from the Chinese ambassador: “There’s no need to worry. Some rare earths have military uses, but others are for commercial trade.” Suphajee stressed that all projects must comply with Thai environmental and mining laws, prioritizing balanced trade with China, Thailand’s top partner.
Industry Minister Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana and Department of Primary Industries and Mines Director-General Aditad Vasinonta added that no commercially viable rare earth mines exist yet in Thailand, making the MOU more about information exchange than immediate exploitation. “It’s not economically worthwhile for commercial investment right now,” Aditad clarified, countering viral claims of Thailand as a top exporter—much of its output involves importing and reprocessing raw materials from Australia.
From the U.S. side, the White House framed the pact as helping “secure, resilient supply chains,” with Trump hailing it as a win for American manufacturers in EVs, defense, and tech. Similar deals, including a $8.5 billion framework with Australia, signal a broader push to counter China’s dominance.
Critics Sound Alarm: ‘A Pawn in the Superpowers’ Game’
Opposition voices and academics, however, paint a darker picture, accusing the Anutin government of secrecy and shortsightedness. The signing wasn’t listed in the Cabinet’s October 21st minutes, fueling claims of a rushed, unparliamentary process.
Democrat Party deputy leader Werapong Prapha blasted it on Facebook as turning Thailand into a “pawn in the rare earth war,” arguing the “first opportunity” clause blocks China and risks economic retaliation from Beijing. “Our economy depends heavily on China—why jeopardize that?” he asked, noting rare earths like tungsten and tin are key for clean energy but dominated by U.S.-China competition.
People’s Party MP Phattarapong Leelaphat called the MOU “unnecessary” for national resources, questioning Thailand’s capacity for reciprocal U.S. investments or tech transfers. He warned it favors U.S. exploration and data access without environmental safeguards, potentially allowing priority U.S. production amid weak oversight. “The government made us a battlefield,” he said, urging a halt to mining projects and Mineral Act reforms.
Economist Somjai Phagaphasvivat, an independent expert, urged vigilance against “monopolistic” future contracts granting Washington exclusive rights, which could invite Chinese trade leverage. “If significant reserves are found, the U.S. will push for binding deals—Thailand must protect its interests,” he told Krungthep Turakij.
Environmentalists amplify these fears, citing transboundary pollution from Myanmar’s rare earth mines—often Chinese-operated—which have contaminated Thai rivers like the Kok and Sai with arsenic and heavy metals since the 2021 coup. Extraction via in-situ leaching risks groundwater ruin, threatening health and food security in downstream communities. Civic groups demand strategic analysis balancing mining gains against southern tourism, plus stricter rules to avoid repeats of past scandals like Central region gold mine contamination. “Address Myanmar’s runoff first to build trust,” one editorial implored.
Pheu Thai deputy spokesman Chanin Rungthanakiat demanded legislative briefings, while nationalists decry foreign meddling, linking it to U.S.-brokered Thailand-Cambodia ceasefires.
As Thailand navigates this mineral rush—valued at over $4 billion regionally—the MOU’s fate hinges on execution.
