Bangkok, October 29th, 2025–
Thailand’s vital tourism sector, a cornerstone of the economy contributing over 10% to GDP, is grappling with a persistent downturn in 2025, with foreign visitor arrivals down 7.25% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024. As of October 26th, the Kingdom welcomed 26.25 million international tourists, falling short of last year’s pace and showing a reversal from the post-pandemic rebound that saw 35.54 million visitors in 2024. This marks the first annual decline since the COVID-19 era, with projections now revised to 33.4 million for the full year—a 6% drop.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports’ latest figures, released this week, show arrivals reached 26,245,277 by October 26th, generating approximately 1.2 trillion baht in revenue so far—yet trailing 2024’s totals by a similar margin. Earlier data for January-September pegged the figure at 24.12 million, a 7.56% decrease, with revenue dipping 5.85% to 1.11 trillion baht. While domestic tourism offers some relief—up 2.89% with 148.7 million trips and 854 billion baht in spending—the international shortfall is straining hotels, airlines, and local businesses, particularly in beach hotspots like Phuket and Pattaya.
Key Drivers Behind the Decline
The slump stems from a variety of factors. A sharp 35% drop in Chinese visitors—the kingdom’s largest market—has been the heaviest blow, with only 3.7 million arrivals so far versus over 6.7 million in 2024. Safety perceptions, amplified by social media after incidents like a high-profile abduction of Chinese tourists earlier this year, have eroded confidence, prompting many to opt for alternatives. During China’s recent Golden Week (September 26-October 8), arrivals fell 24% to 200,000, slashing projected revenue by 17% to 9.1 billion baht.
Compounding this is fierce regional competition. Vietnam and Japan have surged ahead, luring budget-conscious East Asian travelers with lower costs and improved infrastructure—Japan alone drew 3.1 million Chinese visitors in 2025, outpacing Thailand. A strengthening Thai baht, up 7% since early 2025, has made destinations like Bangkok and Chiang Mai pricier for long-haul markets such as the U.S. and Europe, where spending per visitor has stagnated. Geopolitical tensions, including a July border skirmish with Cambodia, have further deterred short-haul ASEAN travelers, down 8% overall.
Global headwinds, like U.S. retaliatory tariffs and economic slowdowns in key markets, add pressure, with forecasts warning of flat per-visitor spending into 2026. Despite bright spots—Malaysia leads with 3.8 million visitors, up 7% weekly in late October, and Russia surged 31% to 38,749 last week—these cannot fully offset the losses.
A Cautious Outlook and Calls for Action
Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibul remains optimistic, eyeing a high-season rebound during Chinese New Year 2026 and campaigns like “Nihao Month” to lure back Chinese travelers. Yet analysts urge diversification beyond beach tourism, enhanced safety measures, and currency interventions to stem the bleed. As Thailand—once the world’s ninth-most visited nation—navigates this storm, the sector’s resilience will be tested, with implications rippling through an economy still healing from pandemic scars.
Photo credit: The Pattaya News at recent events in Pattaya.
