Thailand, April 8th, 2025 — Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKP) revised its 2025 SET Index target down to 1,230 points from 1,460, citing continued macroeconomic pressures, slow domestic recovery, tight monetary policy, and global tax risks.
This reflects just a 5% upside from current levels, with potential for the index to drop further to 1,000 points if economic weakness persists.
KKP noted that aside from tourism, Thailand’s economy has been in recession for nine consecutive quarters. EPS and GDP growth remain below pre-pandemic trends, while fiscal stimulus is losing impact. Compared to other markets, Thailand’s underperformance is driven mainly by domestic issues rather than external factors.
The firm sees risks in Q2/2025 from weak tourism, slowing exports, soft consumption, and sluggish investment. However, a sharp drop to 1,000 points could prompt urgent government intervention. The only near-term support may come from investors stepping in if valuations drop to a P/E of 10–11.
A possible policy rate cut at the Bank of Thailand’s next meeting on April 30th could steepen the yield curve and lift sentiment. Until clearer stimulus emerges, KKP advises focusing on safe-haven sectors like hospitals (BCH, PR9, BDMS, BH), telecoms (TRUE, ADVANC), and large banks (KBANK, SCB).
If stimulus is announced, riskier stocks with high debt (AWC, ERW, IRPC, GPSC), smaller banks, consumer-linked sectors, and real estate could benefit. Volatility remains high as current valuations at P/E 12.2 still look expensive. Investors are urged to monitor macro trends closely and adjust strategies accordingly.
