National —
On September 13th, 2024, Dr. Pimnara Hirankasi, the Chief Economist at Krungsri Bank, shared an analysis of the impact of floods on Thailand’s economy, property, infrastructure, and utilities.
Krungsri examined key oceanic indicators, including the ONI (Oceanic Niño Index), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), all of which suggest a rapid transition into La Niña by October 2024.
As a result, Thailand is expected to experience 15-16% higher rainfall than average, with September and October posing significant flood risks across the northern, central, and northeastern regions.
Krungsri’s research modeled three flood scenarios:
- In the base case (50% probability), 8.6 million rai could be affected, with damages totaling 46.5 billion baht (0.27% of GDP).
- In the best-case scenario (20% probability), 6.2 million rai would be affected, with damages estimated at 33.4 billion baht (0.19% of GDP).
- In the most severe case (30% probability), 11 million rai could be impacted, with damages of 59.5 billion baht (0.34% of GDP).
Despite the increased risk, Dr. Pimnara noted that improved water management and private sector preparedness, particularly in industrial areas, would reduce the impact compared to 2011 Thailand’s major flood disaster.
While 2024’s floods are not expected to be as severe as in 2011, the situation remains unpredictable, and ongoing monitoring is essential, especially given the extreme weather driven by climate change, remarked Dr. Pimnara.
