BANGKOK (NNT) – Looking at the overall national economy this year, Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) now expects good economic recovery this year, given positive signs such as the gradual recovery of the export sector, reduced risks from the trade war, as well as the government’s economic measures and investment projects.
SCB’s Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has released its latest forecast, indicating that the Thai economy at the end of 2020 will have grown by 2.7 percent, showing a recovery from just 2.5 percent economic growth in 2019, thanks to a better performing export sector and improved global economy.
The forecast indicates that the Thai economy will still face challenges from the strong Thai baht currently between 29.5 and 30.5 baht per U.S. dollar; the slowdown in consumption and private investment; employment issues; household debt, and the drought disaster.
The EIC expects however that the government’s expeditious approach to infrastructure investment, particularly the 5G network carriers auction, will help promote private investment in telecommunications and related industries. Total investment in 5G network installation this year is expected to be around 90 billion baht, which will increase to 400 billion baht over the next four years.
The EIC expects the Bank of Thailand to maintain the policy rate at 1.25 percent per annum. The center is keeping a close eye on uncertainties between the U.S. and China; the U.S. and EU; the U.S.-Iran conflict; Brexit, and the financial fragility in households and businesses.